“If they take no action despite their supply of gunpowder running low…”
In response to the issue Wisdom brought up, Crampus said, “Perhaps Black Scale has a higher gunpowder production than us.”
“How so?”
“Charcoal can be easily produced in any country; the only difference is in its quality. Sulfur, on the other hand, is difficult to produce at the current stage of civilization. That’s not the case for niter, namely potassium nitrate, right?”
Crampus was referring to a saltpeter bed. In order to make saltpeter, salty soil was needed, which could be scraped from the soil below the living room, kitchen, or fences of older houses, but the supply would be limited. Then, the salty soil would be well-mixed with ash and a person’s urine before being left to dry for months without being exposed to rain. Once it was dehydrated completely, it would be spread out on the floor and air-dried for another few months, flipping from time to time, after which it would be covered with soil and livestock excretion. Then, it was set on fire, which would produce a white moss-like substance—that was saltpeter. However, the saltpeter wouldn’t be very pure at this stage, so in order to increase its purity, it needed to be put into a big cauldron and boiled.
Even low-quality saltpeter took at least three months to make, and high-purity saltpeter could sometimes take years. Not only did the process take time, it also required a large space with a mixture of dried substances, and this was called a saltpeter bed.
“But there are limits to those saltpeter beds. No matter how good Nebula is, the production volume will never exceed a certain amount.”
“What if he had a skilled alchemist or Wizard?”
Wisdom shook his head. At least that was how Crampus interpreted the gesture.
“No, it’s simple. Saltpeter beds not only require time, they also require space and manpower. At the current level of civilization, agriculture is the foundation for every country on the third continent, yet Nebula was going to invest time, land, and manpower that could be used for agriculture just to make weapons? A skilled alchemist or Wizard isn’t going to change that fact. Of course, they might be helpful in making better saltpeter…but a fundamental technological revolution would be needed.” 𝑖𝘦.𝑐𝘰𝘮
Crampus nodded. Unlike Wisdom, however, Crampus believed that Sung-Woon was executing a simple, clear plan instead of plotting a great scheme.
“Wisdom, are you not overcomplicating things?”
“I’m overcomplicating things?”
“Yes. We should admit that Nebula is skilled, and let’s just say that he’s the best player in The Lost World. But that doesn’t mean he cheats or uses glitches to his advantage.”
“Even if he did, it wouldn’t be so surprising at this point… But I guess his strategies are still ones that everyone could comprehend.”
“Exactly. So even now, he’ll be playing within good comprehensible boundaries. We shouldn’t underestimate our opponent, but there’s also no need for us to overestimate them and waste our energy on useless things, either.”
“Occam’s razor, huh?”
Occam’s razor was a guiding principle in logic derived from a passage written by William, a British logician and Franciscan friar. ‘First, don’t assume unnecessary things. Second, if an explanation is possible with fewer assumptions, don’t add any other.’
For example, If there was a black apple with holes in it hanging from a tree, it could be assumed that someone had put holes into the apple, painted it black, and cleaned up all the artificial traces, but it was more likely that a bug had eaten through it.
Wisdom then said, “You’re right. Let’s eliminate unnecessary assumptions. If we look at things simply, what can be the explanation?”
Crampus replied, “Nebula doesn’t find any problem with his current situation.”
“He doesn’t find any problem with it? Black gunpowder has now become the main weapon in war. The military doctrine changed after only a few battles. And because gunpowder weapons are still improving, it could be said that the doctrine continues to evolve as well.”
Crampus shook his head.
“I’m not denying that. But Black Scale stockpiled a large amount of niter right before the war. At the time, Jang-Wan, who had a niter production site within her territory, would have thought that Black Scale was eager to get their hands on as much niter as possible, and that if she was able to provide them with niter and make profit, she would be at an advantage during war.”
“I don’t think Jang-Wan made a mistake. In fact, that much niter would’ve run out after a few battles. And to prove the point, the quality of Black Scale’s black gunpowder did go down towards the end of the previous battle. That’s because the niter wasn’t high-purity niter, but niter produced from saltpeter beds.”
The main component of black gunpowder used for gunpowder weapons was the propellant, potassium nitrate. When potassium nitrate was ignited, it would generate a rapid expansion force that created the energy to push the projectile. And in the production process, potassium nitrate was the one component that differed the most depending on its purity.
Crampus then said, “But he still has as much as he needs.”
“As much as he needs?”
“Nebula doesn’t have enough potassium nitrate for a prolonged war, but he does have enough to carry out a battle right away. So…”
Wisdom said, “Nebula is aiming for a short decisive battle?”
Crampus nodded.
“Yes.”
Crampus smiled as if he was proud of his deduction. And from a logical view, it didn’t seem to have any major flaws.
However, Wisdom shook his head again.
“You’re wrong.”
“I’m wrong?”
Wisdom said, “To be precise, Nebula likely will aim for a short decisive battle, but we’re never going to let him have that. Just because Nebula wishes it doesn’t mean he can make it happen for sure.”
Wisdom pulled up a map.
“Currently, it seems that Nebula could gather more than 30,000 expeditionary forces, excluding his defense troops. Given the estimated amount of black gunpowder, his troops will be able to carry out about three battles, but starting from the second battle, they’ll have used up all the black gunpowder made with high-quality niter. On the other hand, the land that Nebula has to attack is very large.”
Wisdom pointed at the important locations in Asbestos and Stone Cave. They were all where castles were located.
“Of course, if we were to invade and attack Black Scale, it would become a short decisive battle that Nebula wished for, but we aren’t gonna do it.”
“…Is that so? That does sound right,” Crampus said, shamefaced.
Wisdom responded, “But Crampus, I was able to find a clue thanks to what you said.”
“What do you mean?”
Wisdom moved his hand. He was pointing at a place Crampus believed to be irrelevant.
“The coastland of Mangul…?”
“Yes. Alkoom. It’s Mangul’s niter production place.”
Crampus clapped unthinkingly at the realization.
Wisdom then explained, “Alkoom is not only a niter mine, but it also has lots of storages as the niter gets sold to each country. And because it’s far away from Black Scale, their war readiness is low. Nebula could just get some more niter if he runs out. Alkoom will be Black Scale’s next target.”
***
Just as Wisdom had predicted, quite a lot of ships were being built in Black Scale, and most of them were revealed to be warships.
Wisdom, Crampus, and Jang-Wan continued to strengthen the defenses of Alkoom while pretending not to know about Nebula’s plan. At the same time, they also built more warships along their own coasts and finalized their defenses for naval warfare.
Two months later, Black Scale’s fleet of 150 warships set sail toward the southern coast of the third continent. It was a surprise attack without any warning, but Crampus, who always stayed vigilant of the sea, discovered the fleet without much trouble.
‘We were waiting.’
The alliance of the three players did not miss the perfect opportunity to get revenge.
Black Scale’s fleet advanced toward the coast of Alkoom, only to find themselves surrounded by a total of 260 ships. Among them, 130 warships were from Mangul, 100 warships were from Asbestos, and 30 merchant ships were prepared by Danyum’s rebellion force. The clash resulted in the alliance’s victory.
Unfortunately, from the alliance’s perspective, they weren’t able to cause significant damage to Black Scale. Led by Admiral Ian Tata, Black Scale’s fleet only had two ships completely destroyed and five ships partially destroyed. On the other hand, the alliance suffered greater loss with eight fully destroyed ships and thirteen partially destroyed ships.
Still, the alliance’s first victory against Black Scale was encouraging. Although Jang-Wan sarcastically remarked that it was a minor victory as they had used national resources and pushed their limits to build more warships, Crampus saw things differently.
“If our calculations are correct, Black Scale won’t be able to use proper gunpowder weapons from the next battle onward.”
Considering the total number of ships in battle, the ships destroyed weren’t that significant, which was attributed to the alliance’s active efforts, as well as the efforts and the significant amount of firepower Black Scale had put in to prevent any more losses. In addition to victory in battle, the alliance’s goal was to make Black Scale deplete their black gunpowder. And according to Wisdom’s estimation, although their victory on the tactical level was minor, their victory on the strategic level was major.
“What do we do next? Would Black Scale attack Alkoom again?”
“No, I don’t think they will.”
According to the spies in Black Scale, some of the warships had already been sold and made into merchant ships.
Wisdom tried to consider the plans that Sung-Woon could have formulated.
“One, Nebula focuses on a defense match since the quality of Black Scale’s black gunpowder isn’t great enough for offense.”
Crampus then pointed out, “But if we enter a long-term war, wouldn’t it be more advantageous for us because we can maintain our black gunpowder weapons?”
“That’s right. So there aren’t many choices Nebula can make.”
The calculation that Wisdom did of Nebula’s total stock of niter included both Red Fruit’s and Black Scale’s stock. With Red Fruit’s stock excluded, it was estimated that Danyum had a more significant amount of niter and black gunpowder. “…Are they going to attack Danyum?”
“That’s hard to know for sure. If they attack Danyum, then Danyum would want to be apart of our alliance again, and that would become too much of a burden on Black Scale.”
“Then what?”
Wisdom pointed at Crampus.
Crampus asked, “What? Me?”
“Yes, it’s you for two reasons.”
“Two?”
“Firstly, Black Scale will now aim for a long-term war as their last resort.”
“And the second?”
Things happened as Wisdom predicted.
The new independent country that Crampus was newly establishing sat at the most vulnerable location of Wisdom’s territory, thus it was part of Asbestos. Of course, it was because Asbestos couldn’t give them an area with great strategic value, but the land was still valuable to Crampus, as the Trolls of Asbestos had built a tall fortress in preparation for attacks from other countries. The fortress, named Asien, could be used as a citadel for defense, and it was where the Danyum’s rebellion force built the new Danyum.
Black Scale’s army of 20,000 soldiers launched an attack against the Asien fortress. But this time, the outcome wasn’t as the alliance had expected.
*** .
On the fifth day of the battle at the Asien fortress, the walls fell under the continuous bombardment from Black Scale.
***
Crampus requested a Whisper Conversation with Sung-Woon.
“Where did you get it from?”
“Get what?”
“The gunpowder.”
Sung-Woon nodded as if he had understood only then.
“You guys aren’t the only ones who can trade potassium nitrate, are you?”
“What?”
Sung-Woon showed him a map.
“Look carefully. Check if you are the only ones on the map.”
Confused, Crampus looked at the map. And then he realized something.
The map wasn’t only of the third continent. In the five o’clock direction of the map, land peeked out from the bottom.
It was the fourth continent.
𝑖.𝘤ℴ𝘮