“Allen, look at that! The latest PS2 game, ‘Grand Theft Auto 3’! I heard this game is awesome!”
He, of course, knew this game; it was a landmark work that would redefine open-world gaming.
He looked up from the pile of toys, a brilliant, age-appropriate smile on his face, but his eyes were unusually clear. “Dad, games are cool, but I think we’ve bought enough. Mom will kill you.”
John laughed heartily, reaching out to ruffle Allen’s hair: “Don’t worry, I’ll handle your mom. Today is a celebration day for our little genius, everything has to be about you.”
“Empty fantasies are useless; he needs something… tangible, real.”
--- Allen walked out of the study, not holding toys, but another thinner stack of A4 papers, neatly stapled together.
“Allen, my little guy, what is it this time? A sequel to pirates of the caribbean?” he asked jokingly, trying to lighten the mood.
“No, Dad.”
“This is a market foresight analysis report.”
John looked at his son in disbelief: “What… what report?”
“‘Box Office Prediction and Investment Risk Assessment for Two Key Films in the 2001 Summer Season’.”
John’s expression was a mix of laughter and tears; he picked up the “report.”
The core content of the report was simple: predicting the box office fate of two films set to be released in two weeks.
The first was Paramount Pictures’ $150 million sci-fi epic, ‘mars odyssey’. Directed by an A-list director, starring top actors, with an overwhelming promotional campaign, it was widely recognized throughout Hollywood as the number one contender for the summer season.
The second was an unknown independent film, costing only $8 million, titled ‘Echoes in the Alley’. It told a story about a street artist, with no big stars and a very small distribution.
‘mars odyssey’ would suffer an epic box office failure, with its global box office possibly not even covering its production costs.
And ‘Echoes in the Alley’, with its novel narrative and the resonance it generated among young audiences, would become a phenomenal dark horse, achieving a small-to-big success and creating an investment return rate of over ten or even twenty times.
“Allen…” John put down the report, looking at his son with a complex expression, “Where did you… see this? Was it an article in some magazine?”
“No, this is my own analysis.”
“Dad, I know you don’t believe in my script. That’s okay. But this report is something you can verify immediately.”
“The subject matter of ‘mars odyssey’ already seems outdated after ‘Independence Day’ and The Matrix. Its director, James Cole, has fallen into a self-repeating rut in his last three works. More importantly, I heard that its internal test screenings received very poor reviews, with many plot points boring the audience. These are things you should find easier to verify than I do.”
John’s heart sank. He had indeed heard rumors about the poor test screening reviews in a private circle, but he hadn’t taken them too seriously. After all, big productions always have some negative noise before release.
“As for ‘Echoes in the Alley’,” Allen continued, “its distributor adopted a new ‘viral marketing’ approach, creating buzz in early internet forums and college communities. It captured the rebellious sentiment of young people against mainstream culture. This is a force that all traditional analysts have overlooked.”
John fell completely silent. He looked at his son’s tender face, yet he was speaking with such astute and precise analysis. An absurd and eerie feeling enveloped him. This could no longer be explained by “genius.” It was almost like… a ghost from the future, speaking through his son’s body.
“Dad,” Allen’s voice pulled him back from his daze, “I know you have a significant personal stake in Viacom, Paramount’s parent company. If ‘mars odyssey’ fails disastrously, your losses will be considerable. I just want to help you avoid that loss.”
That last sentence hit John like a heavy hammer. This was no longer about a child’s fantasy, but directly related to his real financial interests.
“So, what do you want me to do?”
“It’s simple.” Allen smiled, “Believe me. And, at next week’s industry party, in front of everyone, state my prediction.”
“What?!” John stood up from the sofa in shock, “Allen, are you crazy? You want me to go to a Bel Air party and tell all of Hollywood that Paramount’s annual blockbuster will flop? They’ll think I’m drunk! I’ll become everyone’s laughing stock!”
“Will you?” Allen retorted, “What if… what I say is true? Then how will they look at you?”
John was stunned.
Yes, what if… what if it was true?
What does a person who can accurately predict market trends mean in Hollywood? That’s not a “laughing stock,” that’s an “oracle,” a “Midas touch”!
...A week later, Bel Air Country Club, the annual summer industry party.
John Lawrence held a glass of champagne, moving through the crowd. He had already greeted several studio executives, but he was still somewhat distracted. His son Allen’s words kept replaying in his mind.
“John! My old friend!” a loud voice called out.
John turned around and saw Victor Maxwell, a senior producer at 20th Century Fox. A fat man known for his arrogance and sharp tongue.
“Victor.” John forced a smile.
“I heard you’ve been a bit off lately, John.” Victor sipped his drink, scrutinizing John with his small eyes. “I heard people say you’ve been asking around for negative news about ‘mars odyssey’ lately? What, are Viacom shares burning a hole in your pocket, trying to bail out early?”
Several people nearby chuckled at that.
John’s cheeks felt warm. He knew his unusual behavior in the past few days had become a topic of gossip in the circle.
“I’m just doing some… risk assessment,” John answered vaguely.
“Risk assessment? Haha!” Victor laughed even louder, “John, that’s a $150 million production, James Cole plus Tom Hanks! What risk is there? The only risk is how much money it will make! I bet the opening weekend box office will be at least eighty million!”
“I disagree.”
It was John.
All eyes were on him.
John himself was startled for a moment; he hadn’t expected to actually say that. But once the words were out, there was no taking them back. He took a deep breath and decided to go all in.
He systematically recounted the points from Allen’s report.
“…Outdated subject matter, aesthetic fatigue, the director is stuck in a rut, and more importantly, audiences aren’t buying it anymore.” John’s voice grew steadier, “I predict that ‘mars odyssey’s’ opening weekend box office will not exceed thirty million. It will be the biggest box office dud of the year.”
The entire corner instantly fell into a dead silence.
Everyone looked at John Lawrence as if he were insane.
A few seconds later, Victor Maxwell was the first to erupt in thunderous laughter.
“Hahahahahaha! John! Did you leave your brain at home? Thirty million? Are you insulting Paramount, or are you insulting Tom Hanks?”
The people around him also started to laugh, and the atmosphere was filled with cheerful air.
“John, where did you read this nonsense, some tabloid magazine?”
“Mr. Lawrence, it seems your investment advisor needs to be replaced.”
Sarcasm and taunts poured in like a tide. John’s face alternated between red and white; he felt like a Joker standing naked in the center of the stage.
Just then, he remembered his son Allen’s calm and confident eyes.
“What if I’m telling the truth? Then how will they look at you?”
A surge of courage, from an unknown source, welled up in his heart.
“Not only that,” John raised his voice, overriding all the laughter, “I also predict that the independent film, ‘Echoes in the Alley’, which is being released concurrently next week, will become a box office dark horse. Its final box office will be more than double that of ‘mars odyssey’.”
If the previous statement was insane, this one was utterly delusional.
Victor walked up to John, patted him on the shoulder, his tone full of pity: “John, I truly feel sorry for you. You must be under too much stress.”
“Care to make a bet, Victor?”
“A bet?”
“Exactly, a bet on the opening weekend box office of these two films.” John’s eyes sharpened, “If ‘mars odyssey’s’ opening weekend box office exceeds thirty million, or if ‘Echoes in the Alley’ doesn’t become a dark horse, I’ll lose one million dollars to you.”
One million dollars!
A collective gasp went through the crowd. This was no longer a casual joke; it was a high-stakes gamble with real money.
Victor looked at John’s serious expression, stunned for a full ten seconds. He couldn’t fathom where John got his confidence. But in his mind’s eye, he could already see a million dollars beckoning to him.
“Alright! I’ll take that bet!” Victor extended his plump hand, “And if you win?”
“If I win,” John surveyed the faces of those around him, who were all watching the show, and said coldly, “You will also lose one million dollars to me. And, I want you, Victor Maxwell, at the next party, in front of everyone, to admit that I am the most discerning person in Hollywood.”
This was no longer just about money; it was a gamble on their reputations.
“Deal!” Victor shook John’s hand without hesitation. In his opinion, this was simply a godsend.
Over the next few days, John Lawrence became the biggest laughing stock in all of Hollywood. Nicknames like “Lawrence the Prophet” and “The Million-Dollar Joke” circulated in the break rooms of various studios. Some even privately started side bets on how badly John would lose.
John locked himself at home, refusing all calls and social engagements. Every day, he stared at the constantly updating box office tracking data on his computer screen, his mood fluctuating like a rollercoaster. The data, without exception, showed ‘mars odyssey’s’ popularity soaring.
He began to seriously doubt himself, feeling that his actions that night had been utterly foolish.
Only Allen remained, calmly reading and playing games every day.
“Dad, don’t worry.”
“Trust me, and trust your own courage that night.”
Looking at his son’s calm face, John’s anxious mood miraculously settled a little.
At this point, he could only wait for judgment day to arrive.
Finally, that Friday came.
‘mars odyssey’ and ‘Echoes in the Alley’ were released on the same day.
Saturday morning, the early box office data came out.
‘mars odyssey’s’ Friday opening day box office was twelve million dollars. While not top-tier, it was still respectable. However, its audience reception plummeted. On Rotten Tomatoes, the critics’ approval rating was only 35%, and the audience score was as low as 4.1.
On the other hand, ‘Echoes in the Alley’, despite having very few screenings, was almost completely sold out for every showing. Its word-of-mouth exploded on the internet, with a Rotten Tomatoes freshness rating of 98% and an audience score of 9.5! Its “organic” fans were frantically recommending it on social media, and many cinema managers decided overnight to increase the number of screenings for ‘Echoes in the Alley’ over the weekend.
John’s heart was in his throat.
On Sunday, the situation began to reverse. ‘mars odyssey’s’ single-day box office fell instead of rising, dropping below ten million. Meanwhile, ‘Echoes in the Alley’s’ box office grew exponentially, with its single-day box office surprisingly reaching eight million dollars!
All of Hollywood sensed an unusual shift.
The real earthquake occurred on Monday morning.
The complete opening weekend box office data was officially released.
The sci-fi epic ‘mars odyssey’, three-day opening weekend box office: twenty-eight million five hundred thousand dollars.
The independent film ‘Echoes in the Alley’, three-day opening weekend box office: twenty-two million dollars.
Twenty-eight million five hundred thousand!
This number exploded like a bomb in Hollywood. Not only was it far below the industry’s general expectation of sixty to eighty million, but it also… truly did not exceed the “thirty million” line that John Lawrence had mentioned!
John’s phone was ringing off the hook.
“John! God! How did you know?”
“Mr. Lawrence, I’m a reporter from Variety, could I interview you?”
“John! It’s me, Victor… about that bet… can we talk again?”
John ignored these calls. He hung up all communications and slowly walked into the living room.
His bank account already had an additional one million dollar transfer from Victor Maxwell. But the money no longer mattered.
At this moment, John Lawrence looked at his son, his eyes filled with complex emotions.